Journal of Biogeography

Aimto characterize the evolution of climatic niches during the diversification of the Phyllotis darwini species group, in order to assess the extent to which divergences involved in radiation were associated with patterns of conservatism or divergence of climatic niches, and whether the differentiation found among climatic niches correlated with species phylogenetic relationships. Locationsouth-central Andes, surrounding lowlands, and Patagonia, South America. Methodsspecies climatic niches were characterized by sampling contemporaneous precipitation and temperature conditions across occurrence locations and entire distributional ranges. Climatic niches were analyzed and modeled using multivariate statistics (PCA, PERMANOVA), a maximum entropy-based algorithm, and novel methods developed to explore levels of differentiation (niche overlap test) and divergence (niche divergence test) between realized and fundamental niches. Comparative phylogenetic methods were applied using a time-calibrated phylogeny and integrating climate niche data to estimate ancestral environmental niches within geographic and environmental spaces. Resultscomparisons revealed low levels of climatic niche overlap, both among species realized niches and among their fundamental niches, suggesting high levels of niche differentiation during the diversification of Phyllotis species. Quantifications of niche overlap further showed that observed differences among species lay primarily in the multidimensional nature of climatic niches, as unidimensional quantifications exhibited higher levels of overlap. Evolved differences among species climatic niches were better fitted to a Brownian motion model of evolution, but lacked phylogenetic signal and showed no significant association with species phylogenetic distances. Main conclusionslow levels of differentiation between ancestral climatic niches suggest that the early radiation of species in the Phyllotis darwini species group was promoted by geographic isolation, whereas the more recent diversification of extant species was accompanied by climatic niche differentiation, possibly involving local adaptation to regional ecoclimatic changes associated with Quaternary glacial cycles. The spatial separation of sister species, the complete divergence of their climatic niches, and the lack of phylogenetic signal in niche differences suggest a scenario of diversification in which divergences were prompted by the spatial isolation, but also by the divergent selection exerted by regional climatic differences.

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWThis study integrates phylogeography with distributional analysis to understand the demographic history and range dynamics of a limited dispersal capacity amphibian species, Blue-spotted Salamander (Ambystoma laterale), under several climate change scenarios. For this we used an ecological niche modeling approach, together with Bayesian based demographic analysis, to develop inferences regarding this species demographic history and range dynamics. The current model output was mostly congruent with the present distribution of the Blue-spotted Salamander. However, under both the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a substantially narrower distribution than the present. These predictions showed almost no suitable area in the current distribution range of the species during almost the last 22.000 y before present (ybp). The predictions indicated that the distribution of this species shifted from eastern coast of northern North America to the southern part of the current distribution range of the species. The Bayesian Skyline Plot analysis, which provided good resolution of the effective population size changes over the Blue-spotted Salamander history, was mostly congruent with ecological niche modeling predictions for this species. This study provides the first investigation of the Blue-spotted Salamanders late-Quaternary history based on ecological niche modeling and Bayesian-based demographic analysis. In terms of the main result of this study, we found that the species present genetic structure has been substantially affected by past climate changes, and this species has reached current distribution range almost from nothing since the Last Glacial Maximum.

AimBiogeographic regionalization has fascinated biogeographers and ecologists for centuries and is endued with new vitality by evolutionary perspectives. However, progress is scant for most insect groups due to shortfalls in distribution and phylogenetic information, namely Wallacean and Darwinian shortfalls respectively. Here, we used the western Palearctic ants as the case to tackle these shortfalls and test their biogeographic structure through novel distribution data and phylogenetic approaches. LocationWestern Palearctic realm. TaxonAnts (Formicidae). MethodsFirstly, we developed a refined database integrating the occurrences of 747 ant species across 207 regions of the western Palearctic realm, based on newly expert-validated records derived from the existing global ant biodiversity informatics. Using range estimates for these species derived from polygons and species distribution modelling, we produced species assemblages in 50 x 50 km grid cells. We calculated taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover of ant assemblages, performing hierarchical clustering analysis using the Simpson dissimilarity index to delineate biogeographic structure. ResultsAt both the regional list- and grid assemblage-levels, the Mediterranean has higher turnover and more biogeographic regions than northern Europe, both taxonomically and phylogenetically. Delineations based on grid assemblages detected more detailed biogeographic transitions, while those based on regional lists showed stronger insularity in biogeographic structure. The phylogenetic regionalization suggested closer but varied affinities between assemblages in comparison to the taxonomic approach. Main conclusionsHere, we integrated expert-validated regional lists, species distribution modelling, and a recent phylogeny to tackle Wallacean and Darwinian shortfalls for an important insect group by developing a next-generation map of biogeographic regionalization for the western Palearctic ants. The results of this study suggest strong constraints from geographic barriers and potential effects of climatic history on ant distributions and evolutionary history, and also provide baseline spatial information for future investigations of regional insect distributions.

As climate changes, habitat suitability for multiple taxa are also expected to change. In recent years, mangrove latitudinal range expansion has been linked to increasing temperatures and reduced freezing in temperate regions, happening mainly through encroachment into saltmarshes. The range limit of mangrove forests in Eastern South America has not seen drastic changes in the last four decades, despite trends of increased temperature and the seemingly favorable direction of the Brazilian Current. Here, we investigate if and how the distribution of South-Atlantic mangrove forests may respond to different scenarios of climate change. To do this, we combine ecological niche modelling with propagule dispersal simulations to understand the roles of climate and ocean currents in defining the austral limits of South-Atlantic American mangroves. Our results indicate that minimum sea surface temperature strongly constrains habitat suitability beyond the current distribution of mangroves (28{degrees}2868" S), while dispersal processes heavily limit propagule stranding beyond 35{degrees} S. The Brazil-Malvinas currents confluence zone creates steep temperature gradients and an oceanographic barrier that makes the latitudinal expansion of mangroves unlikely in this region, even in future scenarios of heating climate. We found no evidence of current nor future poleward expansion of mangroves, but total mangrove area has increased in Brazil over the last decades, likely due to landward migration, but anthropogenic interference and urban expansion may restrict this process, leading to coastal squeeze. Under scenarios where both landward and poleward migration are limited, South American mangroves may face increasing vulnerability, with potential impacts on the several ecological, biogeochemical and social cycles they support. Our results contribute to leading hypotheses of climate restriction and shed light on the role of ocean currents in South America, helping to explain why the poleward expansion reported in other regions has not yet been observed in the South-Atlantic mangrove range limit.

At their early age, a large proportion of island pools were a partial sampling of mainland pools whatever islands are oceanic or fragments of the mainland. Through time, colonization, diversification, extinctions, have deeply transformed insular and continental communities and therefore the degree to which they share species. We studied the relative importance of these mechanisms by looking at the shared evolutionary history between species pools on islands and continents. Indeed, most of these mechanisms are not neutral regarding phylogeny but are linked to species evolutionary relationships. We measured the phylogenetic divergence between continental and insular monocot communities through metrics of beta Mean Pairwise Distance and beta Mean Nearest Taxon Distance. We first tested the influence of spatial and environmental distance to the continent, two main factors of divergence, but whose explanatory power in a phylogenetic context was still unclear. We showed that both dispersal and enviromental filtering were important to explain divergence, although species that could pass these filters were not phylogenetically clustered. There was however a clear distinction between oceanic and continental islands: a stable climate in the latters was key to the survival of the original biota leading to a high proportion of shared lineages between the mainland and islands. But distance to the continent was only part of the story, we investigated additionnal mechanisms of phylogenetic divergence through their relation to island features and community structure. This showed that the most divergent islands occurred in the tropics and that processes of persistence of original species, diversification in remote archipelagos, neutral colonization on easy-to-reach islands, turnover, and high speciation rates may have driven phylogenetic divergence at a world scale. This study showed how phylogenetic approaches may explain how divergence, or similarity may have arisen and provide new insights in the continental origin of plant diversity on islands.

Understanding how dispersal and vicariance shape species distributions is a central goal in biogeography, yet the role of islands as sources of continental diversity remains poorly resolved. While multiple dispersal routes from the Eurasian continent to the Japanese Archipelago have been proposed, back dispersal from islands to the mainland is rarely documented, particularly in primary freshwater taxa constrained by marine barriers. Here, we investigated the population genetic structure and phylogeographic history of the Japanese stone loach Barbatula oreas, distributed in Hokkaido and Sakhalin, using mtDNA, nDNA, and genome-wide SNP data. We identified two differentiated Northern and Southern lineages within Hokkaido that diverged during the Pleistocene, indicating that geological events such as paleo-catchment reorganization, mountain uplift, and volcanic activity have shaped the present population structure. Ancestral area reconstruction based on mtDNA phylogeny identified Hokkaido as the origin of B. oreas and revealed dispersal from Hokkaido to Sakhalin, indicating back dispersal from islands toward the mainland. This pattern contrasts with the prevailing hypothesis of southward colonization from the continent via Sakhalin to Hokkaido. Additionally, low genetic differentiation between Hokkaido and Sakhalin suggested genetic exchange across the strait, consistent with paleo-catchment reconstruction indicating past catchment connectivity between the regions. These results highlight the combined roles of geological dynamics and sea-level fluctuations in shaping genetic structure, challenge the conventional continent-to-island dispersal paradigm. Moreover, our study demonstrates that island systems can act as biodiversity sources--not merely sinks--and provides a rare empirical example of back dispersal in primary freshwater species.

AimCommunity phylogenetics provides important information about the evolutionary and ecological factors help structure regional species assemblages. Here, we analyze phylogenetic diversity (phylodiversity) patterns among fish species in 97 sub-drainages of the Amazon basin, to evaluate the roles of historical and contemporary processes in generating and maintaining the exceptional richness and endemism of Amazonian fish species assemblages. LocationAmazon River basin TaxonFreshwater fishes MethodsUsing a large comprehensive database of freshwater fish species distributions, and a well-sampled molecular phylogeny of ray-finned (actinopterygian) fishes, we develop of multivariate statistical model to correlate estimated historical and contemporary environmental parameters with sub-drainage phylodiversity patterns. The model employs three phylogenetic metrics: i.e.: phylogenetic diversity (PD) sensu stricto, mean pairwise phylogenetic distance (MPD) between species capturing phylodiversity variation at older evolutionary timescales), and mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD) capturing variation in phylodiversity at younger evolutionary timescales. ResultsThe model recovered significant effects of elevation gradients, contemporary climate, habitat fragmentation, water types, and past marine incursions on assemblage phylodiversity patterns. The model also found significantly negative relationships among the three phylogenetic metrics, and between these metrics and distance to mouth of the Amazon, representing a West-East longitudinal gradient. Main conclusionsOur study revealed a highly non-random spatial and environmental distribution of our three phylogenetic diversity metrics across the 97 sub-drainages of the Amazon basin. Beyond significant regional effects of several environmental and historical drivers, we also found a significant West-East gradient of increasing phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic relatedness, both patterns suggesting deeper evolutionary divergences among taxa located to the east, and more diverse, more recent radiations in the western sub-drainages. We conclude that western Amazonia can be seen as an evolutionary "cradle" of biodiversity for freshwater fishes in the Amazon basin as a whole. Significance StatementThis manuscript reveals spatial patterns of freshwater fish phylogenetic diversity and relatedness and explains its major contemporary and historical drivers in the Amazon basin. Amazon basin contains the highest freshwater biodiversity on Earth, as so investigate phylogenetic dimension of diversity is extremally relevant from the perspective of understanding the information on the evolutionary processes that had shaped Amazonian contemporary fish assemblages.

AimTo examine the support of two ecological diversity theories- The Ecological Limits Hypothesis (ELH) and the Niche Conservatism Hypothesis (NCH) - in explaining patterns of global shark diversity. LocationGlobal scale and two ecological realms: the Tropical Atlantic and the Central Indo-Pacific. Time PeriodPast 100 years Major Taxa StudiedWe examined 534 species of sharks and chimaeras, and we performed two subclade analyses on 272 species of ground sharks and 15 species of mackerel sharks. MethodsWe compared the species richness, mean root distance (MRD), and tree imbalance patterns to those simulated under the ELH and NCH with temperate and tropical centers of origin. We used sea temperature as a proxy for energy availability. We examined the importance of biogeographic history by comparing the model fits between two taxonomic groups, ground and mackerel sharks, and two geographic regions, the Tropical Atlantic realm and Central Indo-Pacific realm. ResultsThe ELH, temperate-origin model had the best fit to the global dataset and the sub-analyses on ground sharks, mackerel sharks, and the Tropical Atlantic. The NCH temperate-origin model provided the best fit for the Central Indo-Pacific. The {beta} metric of tree symmetry showed the best potential for differentiating between the ELH and NCH models, and the correlation coefficient for temperature vs MRD performed the best at differentiating between temperate and tropical origin of ancestors. Main ConclusionsThe global and subclade analyses indicate the ELH provides the best explanation for global scale shark diversity gradients even in clades with varying ecology. However, at the realm scale, biogeographic history has an impact on richness patterns. Comparing multiple metrics in relation to a simulation model provides a more rigorous comparison of these models than simple regression fits.

We reconstructed the phylogenetic relationships of superfamily Funduloidea with a synthesis of its biogeographic history. We used DNA sequences from five genes for 135 species, with four fossil calibrations, to generate a time-calibrated phylogeny. We estimated diversification rates, ancestral areas (Nearctic or Neotropical), and ancestral habitat (coastal or upland), for each node. Our results suggest that Funduloidea originated in the Late Cretaceous and diversified from Late Paleocene to present at a uniform rate, except Cyprinodontidae expressed an accelerated rate of speciation ~11.02 Ma. Neither viviparity, marine-to-freshwater transition, consistently accelerated speciation. Funduloidea has a coastal origin, but invaded inland many times. Funduloidea phylogeny indicates, sea-level falls isolate coastal populations, but increase island accessibility and climatic cooling facilitates invasions of temperate species into the tropics. For continental lineages, ancient river drainages accord with lineage distributions, including enigmatic disjunctions in Goodeidae and Fundulus. Niche shifts occurred from estuaries to open coasts and from forests to grasslands. Antiquity, adaptability, and dynamic geography can explain Funduloidea diversity. Combined environmental and phylogenetic data unveil the history of the Gulf of Mexico watershed. Phylogeny suggests there was diversification by barrier displacement and coastal speciation pump. Overall, speciation time, transitions to freshwater, dispersal, vicariance, adaptive radiation, and viviparity contributed to total diversification.

The Amazon is probably the most diverse realm on Earth, and is considered to be the primary source of diversity and a center of dispersal for Neotropical terrestrial organisms. Yet, the assumption that the Amazon basin is a primordial place of fish species origination and dispersal into other drainages still need to be tested. We addressed this issue by inferring a time-stratified biogeographic history and reconstructing the ancestral habitat preference of Hypostomus, a continentally widespread and species-rich Neotropical genus. We found that Hypostomus emerged in the Western Amazon ([~]14.7 Ma), when the Western Amazon River was flowing northwards and disconnected from the Eastern Amazon. We show that dispersal events in the first half of Hypostomus evolution occurred from the Western Amazon into adjacent basins, initiating its Neotropical radiation. The ancestral preferred habitat consisted in small rivers with running waters, a predominant habitat in river headwaters. Because of strong niche conservatism in the early evolution of Hypostomus, we suggest that most of the out-of-Western-Amazon dispersal occurred via headwater captures. The radiation of Hypostomus was further promoted by major reconfigurations of river basins, which opened dispersal opportunities into new drainages. Diversification in habitat preference coincided with colonization of basins already occupied by congenerics, indicative of niche shifts triggered by inter-specific competition and species coexistence. By analyzing the evolutionary history of Hypostomus, we show that Western Amazon was the main center of fish dispersal in the Neotropical Region from Middle Miocene to the present, supporting the cradle hypothesis of fish origination and dispersal.

The Ponto-Caspian region is an important donor of aquatic alien species throughout the Northern Hemisphere, many of which are amphipod crustaceans. Despite decades of ongoing spread and negative effects on native biota, a complete picture of the global diversity and distribution of these amphipods has yet to emerge, hampering efficient monitoring and predictions of future invasions. Herein, we provide a comprehensive summary of alien species taxonomic and ecomorphological diversity, as well as high-resolution distribution maps and biogeographical patterns based on >8000 global records. We find that up to 39 species in 19 genera and five families, belonging to all four currently recognized ecomorphs, are potentially alien, their diversity gradually decreasing with distance from the native region. Most species (62%) have limited distributions, 15% are widespread, and 23% exhibit intermediate ranges. We also find that regions adjacent to the native areal are comparatively less well-sampled than more distant regions. Biogeographical clustering revealed three faunal provinces that largely correspond with the Southern, Central and Northern invasion corridors. We conclude that 1) alien amphipods are a representative subsample of the native Ponto-Caspian phylogenetic and ecomorphological diversity, and 2) that their biogeographical patterns are driven by anthropogenic factors acting on distinct native regional species pools.

AbstractWater availability is widely recognized for its importance in shaping plant diversity gradients globally. However, even in arid ecosystems such as drylands, a remarkable diversity of plant species can persist. Yet, the environmental, topographic, and geographic drivers that have structured plant diversity gradients within drylands over evolutionary time, and their relative importance, are poorly understood, particularly for understudied ecosystems such as coastal lomas. Here, we evaluated the geographic distribution and drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of plants across the coastal lomas of South America, which are isolated fog-fed vegetation oases within the Peruvian and Chilean coastal desert. We collated the most comprehensive data set to date of 72 coastal lomas, and used generalised linear models to assess latitudinal diversity gradients, and evaluated the relative importance of environmental, topographic, and geographic drivers of plant taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity. Notably, we found that both plant species richness and standardized mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD) decreased linearly towards the Equator, while standardized phylogenetic diversity (PD) and mean phylogenetic distance (MPD) exhibited non-linear relationships with latitude, peaking in the hyper-arid core of the Atacama Desert. Our results suggest that current climate, environmental heterogeneity, and geographical factors are the primary drivers of plant diversity. Plant species richness increased with cloud cover, slope, and area, and decreased with soil pH, while standardized PD increased with aridity, elevation, and the human footprint and decreased with distance to the coast. Standardized MNTD increased with elevation, and decreased with increasing area and temperature; standardized MPD increased with slope, and decreased with increasing aridity and distance to the coast. Our results suggest that environmental filtering is not the only macroecological process acting on plant diversity across coastal lomas, and has often been counterbalanced at different points in evolutionary time by factors associated with environmental heterogeneity, possibly reflecting the presence of climate refugia and diverse habitats that promote species coexistence. Also, our results offer empirical evidence supporting an inverse latitudinal gradient in plant diversity across coastal lomas, which emerges as a consequence of multiple factors that influence water availability, both directly and indirectly. Over evolutionary time, these factors may have significantly contributed to shaping the current structure and composition of coastal lomas.

AimThe Andean paramo is the most biodiverse high-mountain region on Earth and past glaciation dynamics during the Quaternary are greatly responsible for its plant diversification. Here, we aim at identifying potential climatic refugia since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the paramo, according to plant family, biogeographic origin, and life-form. LocationThe paramo region in the Northern Andes MethodsWe built species distribution models for 664 plant species to generate range maps under current and LGM conditions, using five General Circulation Models (GCMs). For each species and GCM, we identified potential (suitable) and potential active (likely still occupied) refugia where both current and LGM range maps overlap. We stacked and averaged the resulting refugia maps across species and GCMs to generate consensus maps for all species, plant families, biogeographic origins and life-forms. All maps were corrected for potential confounding effect due to species richness. ResultsWe found refugia to be chiefly located in the southern and central paramos of Ecuador and Peru, especially towards the paramo ecotone with lower-elevation forests. However, we found additional specific patterns according to plant family, biogeographic origin and life-form. For instance, endemics showed refugia concentrated in the northern paramos. Main conclusionsOur findings suggest that large and connected paramo areas, but also the transitional Amotape-Huancabamba zone with the Central Andes, are primordial areas for plant species refugia since the LGM. This study therefore enriches our understanding on paramo evolution and calls for future research on plant responses to future climate change.

AimIdentifying the mechanisms driving divergence in marine organisms is challenging as opportunities for allopatric isolation are less conspicuous than in terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we aim to estimate a dated phylogeny of the squid family Loliginidae, and perform ecological niche analyses to explore biogeographic and evolutionary patterns giving rise to extant lineages in this group, with particular focus on cryptic species with population structure along the western Atlantic coast. LocationWorld-wide. TaxonClass Cephalopoda, Family Loliginidae MethodsWe used three loci to infer gene trees and perform species delimitation analysis to detect putative cryptic speciation events. We then estimated a dated species tree under the Bayesian multispecies coalescent and used it to reconstruct ancestral distributions based on the currently known ranges of the species. Also, we tested the hypothesis of niche divergence in three recently diverged species subpopulations of the northwestern and southwestern Atlantic Ocean by ecological niche modeling and niche overlap measurement from occurrence data. ResultsThe phylogenetic analyses confirmed the monophyly for the current twenty-six species of the Loliginidae family. Our ancestral area reconstruction and divergence estimation revealed the origin and geographical dispersal of loliginid lineages. Additionally, the phylogenetic analysis and the species delimitation analysis supported geographic structure within D. pleii, D. pealeii and L. brevis. The ecological niche models revealed unsuitable habitat in the immediately adjacent area of the Amazonian Orinoco Plume, yet suitable habitat characteristics beyond this area. Main conclusionsOur study allowed us to confirm the monophyly of all currently recognized species within the Loliginidae family and we corroborate the biogeographical origin being the Indo-Pacific region in the Cretaceous. We found a possible new cryptic lineage and show evidence of the Amazon-Orinoco Plume as an ecological barrier, which influenced the diversification of this particular group of marine organisms.

O_LIThe latitudinal gradient (LG) hypothesis predicts a poleward decrease of genetic diversity. Similarly, the central-marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts higher genetic diversity in range centres than margins. We examined these patterns in Europe (EU), North America (NA) and East Asia (EA), which experienced contrasting patterns of landscape fragmentation. C_LIO_LIWe compiled genetic variation data for 445 plant species and 8,530 populations. We calculated ecological metrics comprising distance to the range margin and native climatic niche margin, distance to refugia, latitude and altitude. We applied Bayesian inference to evaluate the relationships between genetic variation and ecological metrics. C_LIO_LIWe found universal support for the CMH, with populations at the centres of species ranges and/or native climatic niches exhibiting higher genetic diversity than those at the margins and stronger patterns in woody versus herbaceous plants. Evidence for a LG in diversity was less consistent with latitude: negatively correlated with genetic diversity in EU, positively correlated in EA, and no correlation in NA. C_LIO_LIOur analysis supports the view that the LG is largely driven by latitudinal trends in glaciation, particularly in EU, but highlights that glaciation patterns and their resulting impacts on landscape genetic diversity were more heterogeneous in NA and EA. C_LI

Evolutionary radiations on oceanic archipelagos (ROAs) have long served as models for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes underlying species diversification. Yet, diversity patterns emerging from ROAs have received relatively little attention from biogeographers, even though characterizing the effect of key geo-environmental factors on island clades species distribution could be important for unraveling diversification dynamics. In this study, we conducted a comparative analysis using island-specific species richness values for approximately one hundred ROAs across major oceanic archipelagos (mostly Hawaii, Canary Islands, Galapagos and Fiji) and taxa (vascular plants, invertebrates and vertebrates). Our aim was to determine whether (1) ROA species richness patterns scale as a function of key geo-environmental factors including island area, geological age, environmental heterogeneity (elevation and topographic complexity) and inter-island isolation, and (2) whether the magnitude of the effects of these factors varies across archipelagos and taxa. Our results identified elevation as a key driver of ROA species richness patterns on islands, supporting existing theoretical and empirical work that highlighted the central role of environmental heterogeneity in driving diversification on oceanic islands. As importantly, we found that the influence of geo-environmental factors varies across archipelagos and taxa, suggesting that unique archipelagic dynamics and biological traits together shape diversification differently. Our findings emphasize the value of applying biogeographical modeling at the resolution of individual radiations to improve our understanding of evolutionary processes on oceanic archipelagos.

AimTo investigate how past climate change has shaped the genetic diversity and demographic responses of tarantulas across latitudes, and to test whether climate-demography relationships vary with latitude. LocationGlobal; spanning tropical to temperate regions. TaxonTarantulas (family Theraphosidae). MethodsWe compiled mitochondrial Cytochrome oxidase I (COI) sequences for 48 tarantula species worldwide, including newly generated sequences, to estimate nucleotide diversity ({pi}) and Tajimas D. Species distribution models (SDMs) were constructed under present-day and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climatic conditions to quantify changes in habitat suitability since the LGM. Using generalized linear models (GLMs), we tested whether genetic and demographic metrics were associated with latitude and climate-driven habitat change, and whether their relationship varied with latitude. ResultsPairwise correlations among latitude, habitat change, and genetic metrics showed no significant associations. However, GLMs revealed a significant interaction: the effect of habitat suitability change on Tajimas D was strongly positive at high latitudes but negative or negligible at low latitudes. This indicates that demographic responses to past climate change varied latitudinally. Several high-latitude species showed genetic signatures of demographic expansion and range increase since the LGM. Main conclusionsOur results support the hypothesis that species at higher latitudes experience stronger demographic fluctuations due to historical climate change, aligning with Darwins early predictions. Moreover, patterns of demographic growth in temperate taxa suggest that some species may benefit from recent warming, consistent with Janzens climatic variability hypothesis. These findings demonstrate that climate-driven genetic and demographic responses in tarantulas are shaped by latitude, highlighting the importance of integrating phylogeography with ecological niche modeling to understand species resilience under climate change.

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWStudies of the Papuan region have provided fundamental insights into both the evolutionary processes generating its exceptional biodiversity, as well support for alternative hypotheses of geological history. Lying at the junction of five tectonic plates, this region has experienced a turbulent geological history that has not only produced towering mountains allowing elevational specialization, and island archipelagos of varying distance promoting vicariance, but also active margins where land masses have collided and been subsequently rifted apart creating a mosaic of intermixed terranes with vastly different geological histories which may influence the evolutionary history of its biota. Asterophryine frogs are a hyperdiverse clade representing half the worlds microhylid diversity (over 360 species) centered on New Guinea and its satellite islands. We show that vicariance facilitated by geological history, and not elevational specialization best explain this far and wide distribution of a clade that should have poor dispersal abilities. Thus, some of the predictions of island biogeography theory are supported if informed by geological history. We recovered a mainland tectonic unit, the East Papua Composite Terrane (EPCT), as the center of origin for Asterophryinae and no fewer than 71 instances of what appear to be long-distance dispersal events, 29 of which are between mainland regions, with 42 from the mainland to the islands, some presently as far as 200 km away from source populations over open ocean. Furthermore, we find strong support for a "Slow and Steady" hypothesis for the formation of the northern margin of New Guinea by many separate accretion events during the Miocene, over other major geological alternatives, consistent with the 20 M year age of the clade and arrival via the EPCT. In addition, the historical biogeography of our frogs strongly support an affiliation of the Louisiade Archipelago and Woodlark Island with the Owen Stanley Mountain range on the EPCT, and the recent proximity of the large New Britain island. Our results show that Asterophryinae did not have to repeatedly and independently disperse across and large ocean barriers to the offshore islands, but that the current distribution can be explained through vicariance and short-distance oceanic dispersal as historical land connections disappeared and islands slowly became separated from each other. We show that islands have a life history, undergoing changes in area through island-building and erosion, but also change in distance from other land masses, with consequent opportunities for dispersal, isolation, and cladogenesis of their biotas. More broadly, we can begin to see how the geological history of the Papuan region can result in the rapid accumulation and staggering number of extant species.

AimTo assess if and how species range size relates to range structure, if the observed geographic range properties can be retrieved from predicted maps based on species distribution modeling, and whether range properties are predictable from biogeophysical factors. LocationEurope Time periodCurrent Major taxa studied813 vascular plant species endemic to Europe MethodsWe quantified the size and spatial structure of species geographic ranges and compared ranges currently occupied with those predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were constructed using complete occurrence data from the Atlas Florae Europaeae and climatic, soil and topographic predictors. We used landscape metrics to characterize range size, range division and patch shape structure, and analysed the phylogenetic, geographic and ecological drivers of species range size and structure using phylogenetic generalized least squares (pGLS). ResultsRange structure metrics were mostly decoupled from species range size. We found large differences in range metrics between observed and predicted ranges, in particular for species with intermediate observed range size and occupied area, and species with low and high observed patch size distribution, geographic range filling, patch shape complexity and geographic range fractality. Elevation heterogeneity, proximity to continental coasts, Southerly or Easterly geographic range positions and narrow ecological niche breadth constrained species observed range size and range structure to different extents. The strength and direction of the relationships differed between observed and predicted ranges. Main conclusionsSeveral range structure metrics, in addition to range size, are needed to adequately describe and understand species ranges. Species range structure can be well explained by geophysical factors and species niche width, albeit not consistently for observed and predicted ranges. As range structure can have important ecological and evolutionary consequences, we highlight the need to develop better predictive models of range structure than provided by current SDMs, and we identify the kinds of species for which this is most necessary.

AimUnderstanding whether invasive species retain or shift their ecological niches has traditionally relied on scalar overlap metrics that quantify the magnitude of niche change, but not its structure. Here, we test whether biological invasions involve a reorganisation of the environmental axes along which native and invasive ranges are differentiated, and whether the dominant axes of this reorganisation are consistently associated with invasion pathway type (intercontinental vs. within-continent). LocationGlobal (North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australasia). Time periodContemporary (environmental variables representing long-term averages, 1980-2021). Major taxa studiedFreshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea): Procambarus clarkii, Faxonius limosus, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Faxonius virilis, Faxonius rusticus. MethodsWe analysed native and invasive occurrences for five globally important crayfish invaders using [~]400 hydrologically resolved environmental variables from the Global Crayfish Database of Geospatial Traits. Classification models were used to quantify environmental differentiation between native and invasive ranges, and feature contributions were aggregated by environmental domain (climate, topography, soil, land cover). Patterns were evaluated across intercontinental and within-continent invasion pathways and assessed for robustness using cross-validation, permutation tests, sample-size sensitivity, and comparisons with classical niche overlap metrics. ResultsNative and invasive occurrences were consistently distinguishable across all species (accuracy 96.5-99.9%). A pathway-dependent pattern emerged: intercontinental invaders were primarily differentiated along climatic dimensions (58-76% of model importance), whereas within-continent invaders showed a more balanced contribution of climatic and topographic variables ([~]42% each), including strong signals from river network position. This contrast was stable across cross-validation folds (SD < 1.6%), and supported by permutation tests (P = 0.001). Classical niche overlap metrics (Schoeners D = 0.30-0.62) did not capture this qualitative distinction. Main conclusionsBiological invasions involve not only changes in niche position but a reorganisation of the environmental axes that distinguish species distributions. Our results suggest that the dominant axes of this reorganisation differ systematically with invasion pathway, reflecting whether species encounter novel climatic regimes or primarily shift within existing climatic space along topographic and network-position gradients. By resolving which environmental dimensions underpin native-invasive differentiation, this approach provides a complementary perspective to scalar overlap metrics and a basis for more mechanistic interpretations of invasion processes.